Will Democrats hold the Senate, cont?d

A reader writes:

You posted today that Dems are more likely to take back the House than retain the Senate. �I don't see it.

Intrade is reflecting the conventional wisdom that took hold at some point in the last few months that the Senate leans Republican in 2012. But, let's take a close look.

First, if the Republicans win the White House in 2012 (unlikely but possible), I think we?d all agree that the House and the Senate will go to the GOP as well. The real question is, what happens if Obama wins reelection. In that case, Joe Biden is the 51st vote, which means the GOP needs to pick up 4 seats.

Let's at the start that ND goes Republican. �Now thay need 3 more seats. �Their best chances would be in NE, MT, MO, VA, WV. Offsetting that, the Dems have a good pickup chance in NV (very good in my opinion given that Harry Reid has provided a roadmap to a huge Democratic turnout). �After that, I think the pickings get slim. You?ve got FL, OH and NM, but NM is awfully blue at this point and have you seen Sherrod Brown?s recent polling in the wake of John Kasich's implosion? �Also, the Dems have a shot in MA (not a good one but a shot), and there is some chance they don't lose ND.

If you assume that ND and MA roughly offset FL, OH and NM, and you offset NV with VA, that means the GOP probably has to take three out of four of the following: �NE, MT, MO, WV. �Now that is certainly possible. �But, to me it looks more like 50/50 or slightly less.

Source: http://feeds.washingtonpost.com/click.phdo?i=5247af6e3fc588b6aa1f500c78517691

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