With the regular season fast approaching, it is time to begin my predictions for the regular season. I want to begin with my standard disclaimer. I have seen several people attempt to predict the winner or every game (or a significant number of them) over a season. I have never seen anybody post as good as a 60% success rate. If we assume that 60% is a theoretical limit for the maximum possible longterm success rate (and that number is probably too high), then we can see that 20% of the time the better team wins because of their talent (i.e. they are the better team) and the rest of the time the game was won by luck. There is an equal chance that either team can win because of luck, so there is a 40% chance the favorite wins and a 40% chance the underdog wins. This leaves us with one game in five won because of the talent of the better team. That is the signal I am trying to predict. I cannot predict the other games.
In the regular season things get even harder. It is September and some of the games I am trying to predict will not happen until next spring. By then there will be trades, injuries, new coaches, streaks, slumps and a bunch of other things nobody can expect today.
So here are my predictions for the finish in the Northwest Division and a little blurb for each team:
Source: http://www.kuklaskorner.com/index.php/psh/comments/northwest_division_predictions/
David Clarkson Patrick Davis Tyler Eckford Mark Fraser Andy Greene zach Parise
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