When arch-rivals Duke and North Carolina square off on Wednesday in Chapel Hill, the veteran front court trio of sophomore Harrison Barnes, junior John Henson and senior Tyler Zeller will be too strong for the Blue Devils to overcome.
If we were talking about a game in Duke with the Cameron Crazies going, well, crazy, it would be a different story. But in the Dean Dome, Duke is just playing too flat to beat a team of North Carolina's caliber.
The Tar Heels will win the game largely because of the inside presence that they have. That will tell you everything you need to know about why Duke won't win on the road.
The Blue Devils' 36 rebounds a game is a rather dismal number, good enough for 104th in the country. Compare that to North Carolina. They average 10 boards a game more than the Blue Devils. Their 46.3 rebounds per game lead not only the ACC, but the entire country.
On the road against a team like North Carolina, you need to rebound well. It is harder to shoot from the outside away from home. To get good point totals and establish runs, you need to get rebounds and points in the paint. That is not going to happen against North Carolina.
The Tar Heels are more suited to win at Cameron than the Blue Devils are at the Dean Dome. Barnes, Henson and Zeller will be too dominant in the paint. The shots they will take will be higher percentage than the ones taken by Austin Rivers and Seth Curry.
In Duke, the home-court advantage would be enough to keep the Blue Devils in the game. But in Chapel Hill, the advantages all lie with the Tar Heels. That is going to sustain them in this one, keeping the UNC lead in the ACC.
Prediction: North Carolina 79, Duke 69
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