The deal to bring Yu Darvish over from Japan is done, so what exactly are the Texas Rangers getting themselves into?
They just spent $51.7 million to negotiate with him and another $60 million on a six-year deal, so obviously Nolan Ryan and the rest of management sees a future star in the right-hander.
The 25-year-old Darvish has a 93-38 record with a 1.99 ERA in his Japanese career with Nippon-Ham. His is tall at 6’5", 185 pounds and sports six different pitches.
Some may call it a risk, while others believe it’s even more of a risk to march forward with Alexi Ogando as a core member of their starting rotation.
So will the move pay off?
Scouting Report
The fact Darvish throws six different pitches instantly catches your attention, and the speeds vary a ridiculous 30 MPH, according to Grantland.com:
90-96 MPH four-seam fastball
90-93 MPH two-seam fastball
90-92 MPH cutter
85-ish MPH horizontally breaking slider
Low 80s downward-breaking slider
65-70 MPH curveball
While he tops out in the mid-90s, having the ability to throw a 65 MPH curveball followed by an upper 90s fastball makes Darvish incredibly unique.
That is an outstanding repertoire, and you begin to realize his unique potential. With so many options, hitters have no idea what to expect, and it’s led to a sky-high strikeout rate. He averaged 10.7 strikeouts per nine innings in ’11 and induces groundballs at an incredible 57 percent clip.
His release is a lot more compact and traditional than most Japanese pitchers. In watching clips, you can see that he does a terrific job of hiding the ball until the very last second. That’s a big reason for his tremendous strikeout rate. Another positive sign is his fearlessness pitching inside. That’s something you can teach most pitchers.
Hitters seemed to get constantly jammed with his horizontally breaking slider that has some ridiculous movement on it as it crosses the plate. Few major league hitters will be ready to hit that pitch. It’s also something you can’t prepare for by watching tape. It’s going to be trial and error for hitters.
Durability
Darvish has shown to be incredibly tough in his young career. He has 40 complete games in four seasons and is coming off a 2011 where he threw 232 innings.
The key difference here is that Japanese league teams typically incorporate six-man rotations, allowing a solid amount of extra rest over the course of a season. Regardless, Darvish should have no problems registering over 200 big league innings.
His arm stretches all the way back behind his head which could lead to elbow issues down the road and it's something the Rangers need to monitor as Darvish progresses.
Comparisons to Other Japanese Pitchers in MLB
He will forever be linked to the likes of Daisuke Matsuzaka, Hideo Nomo, Kei Igawa, Kaz Ishii and Hideki Irabu until he has continued success, but that’s not fair.
None of the above has the combination of height, weight, durability, athleticism and established track record. Judge Darvish by his own stats, not the failures of other hurlers from Japan.
Prediction
The Rangers paid $112 million for Darvish for a reason. He has the whole package, and most importantly, Nolan Ryan is on board. When arguably the greatest pitcher of all time feels comfortable taking the risk, you have to believe in him.
The only question I have is his ability to adapt to a completely new culture and part of the world. He is leaving behind two young kids for eight solid months a year, and it makes you wonder if he’ll get homesick during the dog days of the summer.
But that’s a concern you have with any player changing continents, and I believe that his mental makeup is ready to handle the adversity.
The Rangers have made the past two World Series, and it’s hard to believe they won’t make a third with Darvish now on board.
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