Super Bowl Spread: Why Are New England Patriots Favorites over New York Giants?

In the hours after the dust had settled on both conference championship games, oddsmakers had pegged the New England Patriots as early favorites (-3) to win Super Bowl XLVI over the New York Giants. 

But why?

Undoubtedly, records had some influence. The Patriots are currently 15-3 and the Giants are 12-7. That can turn off bettors who solely look at the records of each team when making picks. 

But other than that, it's hard to determine why the Patriots would be three-point favorites. 

Let's run down some quick reasons why the Giants should be favored:

 

1. Beat them once already

You might not want to put too much stock into past performances, but the Giants did go to New England and beat the Patriots earlier in the season. That's hard to ignore.

Eli Manning outplayed Tom Brady, and that was during a time when the Giants defense was hardly at the strength they are playing at right now.  

 

2. Tougher road

By the time the Patriots had beat their first playoff team this season without a starting quarterback named Tim Tebow, the Giants had already won three (Patriots, Falcons, Packers) and were preparing to beat a fourth. Three of those four came on the road.

The Patriots were gifted a game against a gadget quarterback before facing a legitimate test in the Ravens at home. But is it even a debate who's road to Super Bowl XLVI was tougher?

 

3. Defense, defense, defense

If the Patriots have an advantage at quarterback, it's a small one. Eli Manning is playing as well or better than Tom Brady right now. Both quarterbacks have weapons that will be hard to contain too.

But on defense, there's no doubt that the Giants can throw a package at Brady that New England can't even fathom replicating.

A defensive line that harassed Brady in the Super Bowl four years ago returns both Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora and replaces Michael Strahan with Jason Pierre-Paul. In three straight weeks, that line (and secondary too) have put the clamps down on the Falcons, Packers and 49ers in succession.

It's a a huge advantage that goes to the Giants on the defensive side of the ball. 

 

Overall, it's hard to see how Vegas comes up with a three-point line for New England.

They are right more often than not, but the evidence points to the Giants as being the ones who should come into this Super Bowl as the favorite. Not overwhelming by any means, but where does the Patriots' advantage come from? 

Source: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1035858-super-bowl-spread-why-are-new-england-patriots-favorites-over-new-york-giants

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